Its time to make predictions for 2020; but before I do I want to appraise those made for this year. As always, I’ve marked each between 1 and 10 based on their accuracy.
| No. | My top 10 predictions | Score | Comment |
| 1 | The market grows by just 0.8% worldwide | 9 | The market grew by 0.6% to $6.8 trillion |
| 2 | ITC manufacturing stays in the Far East despite new nationalism | 10 | Despite trade wars between the US and China, almost no IT hardware manufacturing moved |
| 3 | Cyber security goes multi-tenant and cross-border | 7 | MDR vendors continued to grow as a proportion of all cyber security spending |
| 4 | The EU suffers post-Brexit blues | 8 | ITC sales in the EU declined, although it wasn’t ‘post-Brexit’ as the departure of the UK was delayed! |
| 5 | Cloud wash 2019 – investment costs spiral; the bubble bursts for some | 7 | Total IaaS/PaaS spending grew by just 19% to Q3; a number of smaller suppliers sold their data centers |
| 6 | Large organisations adopt multi-cloud management and better data governance | 10 | ‘Multi-cloud’ has become a by-word for large organisations engaged in digital transformation projects; ‘one version of the truth’ data approaches are increasing to comply with data privacy legislation |
| 7 | IT and OT convergence will be limited by differences in expectations and market views | 7 | HPE and other vendors addressing IoT and factory automation are still in advance of most beyond most user OT strategies |
| 8 | European and Japanese suppliers fall behind US and Chinese ones | 10 | Revenue growth was -3% of European, -2% for Japanese, +1% for US and +3% for Chinese vendors (in constant dollars) |
| 9 | 5G, SD WAN, NVMe over Fabric will drive ITC hardware growth | 8 | Products with these features grew in a market which otherwise declined. |
| 10 | Algorithms and robots challenge our privacy and ethics | 10 | Virtually nothing was done to limit the use of algorithms and targeted advertising to disrupt elections; vendors continued to succeed by selling private data without the owners knowledge or consent |
Overall I claim an 86% accuracy for the year – a better result than in 2018.
One Response to “ITCandor’s 2019 predictions – a self-assessment”
Read below or add a comment...