Mobile devices – a $361b market, 1.4b shipments, 3.2b installed base in 2019

Following my publication of the 2019 market for cloud services and the help that can give us all during the COVID-19 pandemic, today I want to look at mobile devices, by which I mean basic and smart phones, tables, smart wearables and audio devices. I’ll be looking at 2019 market shares as well as a forecast for the global installed base (see my Figure above) and shipments.Despite their tremendous success it looks likely that the worldwide smart phone installed base has peaked at a total slightly lower than basic phones, but still at over 2 billion. Then again the installed base of basic mobile phones was less than the number of wireline phones. It is reassuring that there are so many telephones in existence – essential for communications at a time of crisis and for those forced to isolate to keep in touch with friends and relations. Of course these devices are useless should telecoms companies fail to keep their services running, but at least at the moment they seem to be able to handle the uptick in usage. For higher level communications smart tablets and PCs (which I’ll write about in a later post) can give us video connections as well, so we can see as well as hear our close contacts, or supply a platform for medical consultations which can no longer be carried out face-to-face.

In total 1.4 billion mobile devices were shipped in 2019 – down 1% on 2018. In fact shipments declined for the fifth year in a row, which is a sign of a change from a new to replacement market in most countries and regions. I believe there will be an 18% decline in 2020 as a result of the economic recession caused by the pandemic, with shipment growth not returning until 2022. However the status of all these devices has grown massively in importance for the reasons I’ve discussed above.

I show the market shares in unit shipments and revenues for all mobile devices and smart mobile devices (which are part of the total) in the Figure above. Apple was the leader in terms of revenues and Samsung in terms of shipments – market shares which have increased steadily year-by-year over the last decade. China is the manufacturing base for the majority of these highly-integrated products, which is reflected in the fact that the other main suppliers are now Chinese; they’ve taken up the slack of the withdrawal of companies such as Blackberry Nokia, Sony, Motorola and others who weren’t able to keep up with the scale economies and technical developments. I believe the future will remain similar in terms of the make-up of the major vendors, although the coming economic recession and potential disruption in the distribution channel will undoubted supress market opportunities for new comers.

In the face of the current global crisis it’s perhaps a little reassuring that there are son many devices in our homes and businesses to allow us all to keep in touch during a time of increasing physical isolation. Many families are introducing older relatives to these products as a way of keeping in touch, while they also help those of us who are able to work from home to continue to work and stay in contact with business contacts and customers.