Major world events and the end of life of Microsoft Windows affect PC market growth (see my Figure above). The Credit Crunch in 2008-2009 reduced spending for a year, while the COVID-19 pandemic increased spending for two. Microsoft’s withdrawal of maintenance for each Windows version has also stimulated – or at least coincided with – a period of spending growth. Of course these explanations are not entirely sufficient for the direction of the market:
- Apple’s Macintosh, which doesn’t run Windows as is primary operating system, accounted for 19% of spending and 12% of unit shipments in the year to the end of Q3 2025; its sales are not directly affected by Windows variants.
- Once the Credit Crunch was over in 2009 spending increased (in part) as buyers invested in machines they would otherwise have bought earlier, while the decline in spending between 2022 and 2024 was partially due to a delay in replacing machines bought early for those forced to work from home to avoid infection.
Nevertheless the PC market is mature enough for its growth to be affected by these two major factors. I’m sure Microsoft would prefer purchasing to increase when it introduces a new operating system than when it withdraws support for an older one. The PC remains an essential tool for many who need to create – rather than mainly consume – information and data. By and large spending on smart phones and tablets have been additions to, rather than replacements for, spending on PCs.
The PC market has reached maturity. The installed base declined from its peak in 2022 to 863 million in 2024 (see my Figure above for annual growth rates of this along with spending and shipped units). There are few countries in the world that will in which PCs have yet to be a standard business tool or in which households with appropriate budgets don’t use them. Marketing has changed as a result of maturity, since vendors have to concentrate on the advantages of new over older products. AI is being used as a rationale by many; however this is not much of a differentiator as the ‘AI’ is almost always resident in services rather than the PC itself.
Spending growth (the blue line above) has outgrown shipped units since 2020, indicating an increase in average prices over the period. Both spending and shipped unit growth will be positive in 2025, which I’ll be able to show once my assessment of the Q3 2025 market is complete.
The Americas have a significant lead in spending on PCs (see my Figure above for the annual sales revenue by region between 2006 and Q3 2025). Spending in Asia Pacific, measured in current $US conversion rates, overtook EMEA in 2011. However, due to the falling value of currencies in EMEA against the $US and the increasing value of currencies in Asia Pacific, their positions are reversed if we look at market values based on constant Q1 2025 rates (the dotted lines above). By and large spending in regions has followed the worldwide growth rates.
Normally market shares refer to the revenues made. However the tradition in the PC market is to use shipped units, due to the great similarity of products. Apple is the exception as its Macintosh products don’t run Microsoft operating systems (except virtually when necessary). They are also, on average, more expensive. Nevertheless:
- Apple was the third largest shipper of PCs in the year to the end of September 2025; its 26.7m shipments placing it in third place.
- Lenovo – a Chinese vendor with a strong US history through its acquisition of IBM’s PC business in 2005 – was by far the market leader with shipments of 68.4m products giving it a 31.6% share.
- HP Inc. was in second place; shipments of 55.9m giving it a 25.8% share.
At a regional level (see my Figure above) HP Inc. shipped more (24.5m) than Lenovo (22.7m) in the Americas.
In the future I expect the PC market to remain strong and dominated by its current leaders. There are opportunities for specialist manufacturers to thrive, especially in areas of ethical production and products. Increasing use of AI in manufacturing processes will eat away at the labour price arbitrage model and may allow countries with higher wage costs to consider PC manufacturing for the first time in decades. Personally I would consider paying more for a PC if its maker could prove its creation was less destructive to the environment.