Before sharing my predictions for 2026, it’s time to see how well I did this year. I’m giving myself a score of 66% since, despite accurately highlighting the trends, I failed to forecast the massive growth in spending in 2025 – especially in the Americas and EMEA.
| No. | My top 10 predictions | Score | Comment |
| 1 | Total ITC market spending will remain level with 2024 at $7.5 trillion, but net profits surge by 13% | 4 | The whole market grew by 8% to reach $8.0 trillion; net profits rose 18% to $1.4 trillion |
| 2 | Asia Pacific spending will grow by 5%; while it will decline by 2% in both the Americas and EMEA | 4 | Asia pacific grew by 7%, but was outgrown by the Americas (8%). EMEA spending grew by 7% |
| 3 | China will lead in terms of ITC spending growth (+9%); UAE will be bottom (-5%); The USA will be the largest market, but see a 2% decline | 4 | China didn’t lead – it grew by 6%. The USA increased by 8%. The UAE was bottom with 5% growth |
| 4 | Among the 4 categories Hardware will stay ahead of Software spending in 2025. IT Service will continue to lead, while spending on Telecom Service will decline again. | 6 | Software overtook Hardware (just). IT service continued to lead. Telecom service grew least (3%) of the 4 categories. |
| 5 | Among the different offerings spending will grow most on Servers and decline most of Peripherals | 7 | Servers (17%) were near the top, but beaten by gaming (20%). Perpiherals were at worst performing offering, but still grew at 0.4% |
| 6 | New trade tariffs from President Trump and responses from China and the EU will create supply shortages and hinder market growth | 8 | Tariffs are changing the nature of the ITC market from gloal to regional. The USA made sure essential ties with South Korea and Taiwan remained advantageous |
| 7 | Greater use of generative AI reduces the number of white-collar workers, creating IT luddite movement | 5 | Despite the continued rise in AI investments, most companies have not yet been reducing their headcount as a result |
| 8 | Criminals hack AES 256 encryption – users rush to adopt quantum-safe code | 10 | Chinese scientists used quantum computing to break AES encryption, although there is no proof that criminals have done so yet |
| 9 | Global warming and ITC – moves to reign in spurious workloads to cut carbon emissions. | 8 | Data centers are running out of power and reducing their spurious workloads. The main cause however is the growth of AI workloads,not environmental concerns |
| 10 | Social media companies face increasing restrictions and outright bans for failing to remove harmful content | 10 | Australia has anned the use of smart phones in schools for under-16s. Other countries will follow |